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I know that it’s only January, but this year’s prize for a misquote must go to Fire Security Ltd, who have stated the following on their website  “According to research by economic analysts Mel Gosling and Andrew Hiles, 70 per cent of businesses would fail after a fire – either by not reopening immediately after the blaze, or gradually dwindling in resources and effectiveness to close within three years”.

I have spent many years trying to debunk this myth, and some years ago Andrew and I jointly published our research on the much quoted statistic and its many variations (see Now I find that I’m being quoted as not only supporting the myth, but as having undertaken and published research showing it to be true!

How did Fire Security Ltd come to believe this? Is it deliberate, or a genuine mistake? I’m not one to believe in Machiavellian plots – the “cock-up” theory is usually right, but I’m struggling to understand how anyone could read the research that Andrew and I published and reach the conclusion that they did. Maybe someone from Fire Security Ltd had heard about the myth (most people have) and Googled it – only to find that we had done some research, and then just looked at the 2 line extract that Google provides and decided to quote us without going to or reading the link. Is that what passes for intelligent research nowadays?

I could become famous for proving that 80% of businesses that suffer from a major incident and do not have a business continuity plan go out of business within 18 months (not to mention being thought of as an “economic analyst”), which would be terribly ironic.

In case anyone out there has any doubt, I believe this statistic and its many variations to be not only a total myth, but absolute rubbish.


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